Urgent…

Reported right now that Allawi-Jamila (see this post, link to Google maps, “Missing Links” reported more details about the fight) is on fire because of the fights in Sadr-City between the Americans and Mahdi Army.

You know what is not very widely reported?

This very brief news: “Iran to set strict conditions and ignores all the American calls for new negotiation rounds about Iraq’s security unless the requests come directly from Baghdad”, for sure this was a direct answer to the U.S. Gates call for meetings and talks with Iran, and a good opportunity for revenge.

Nahla Al-Shahal on Al-Hayat says:

Recent confrontations shows that Iran is organizing its elements in Iraq for the coming U.S. - Iran war, which is is already going on silently…. does this mean that Iran is the winner? …. kept good relations with Muqtada Al-Sadr and demonstrating to Al-Hakim and his Badr Brigades - formed by Iran - that they are replaceable.

Continues Al-Hayat Baghdad Office Chief Mushriq Abbas, who agreed with the previous article suggesting that Iran involvement to calm the situation was another demonstration of its ability and influence in Iraq.

Sooner or later the Americans are going to negotiate Iraq-security with Iran, but on the Iranian terms and conditions.

http://www.roadstoiraq.com/2008/04/06/fire-erupts-in-sadr-city-because-of-the-fights-iran-ignores-the-us-talk-offer/



Sunday, April 06, 2008
US air-strikes in Sadr City, and the political context of the War on Sadr (updated)

Since Thursday, April 3, US troops have been reported deploying in Sadr City, and an AP report on Friday associated this with an attempt to deter rocket-launching operations against the Green Zone.

Then on Saturday, at a meeting of a parliamentary committee (Political Council on National Security), the Green Zone parties (except for the Sadrists) backed Maliki's "crime-fighting" initiatives and approved the continuation of "operations under special laws", in effect giving him the green light to carry on against the Sadrists. (See the prior post here). Maliki stressed, implicitly or explicitly, the idea that the Basra "outlaw" groups represent a clear and present Iranian threat in Iraq. The Sadrist representative said this was a political attack on the Sadrists, and he said the US presence in the Green Zone, with night-time raids and mass arrests, constitutes collective punishment for having defended themselves (and naturally for opposing the US occupation).

Next: During the night from Saturday to Sunday, April 5 to 6, the US forces went from raids and arrests to large-scale attacks, based on the following reports: AP reported five killed and 17 wounded, including women and children, in "clashes" in Sadr City, then reported that at least 20 people died and 50 were wounded. Continuing into Sunday, AFP said a US airstrike killed nine people at 8:00 in the morning, a strike the US army confirmed, and that another airstrike involving two missiles at 11:00 in the morning, which wasn't "immediately confirmed". Correction: "20 dead and 53 wounded" is reportedly total for the period Saturday night through noon Sunday, based on hospital sources, so it seems to include the airstrikes. *

The chronology is important. The US forces didn't start their airstrikes and other major "clashes" until after the Political Council on National Security, including Sunni parties, had expressed its support for Maliki's extraordinary "law-enforcement" strategy. The key here is the Sunni parties, the largest bloc of which, the Iraqi Accord Front (IAF) reiterated its support for the Maliki military/law-enforcement campaigns, adding to warm feelings between them and the Maliki administration. Government spokesman Ali Dabbagh said he hopes this will lead to a return of the IAF to the Maliki cabinet soon. The idea is embellished in the government paper AlSabah this morning, along with other wonderfully forward-looking ideas, including that of "restructuring a national-unity government".

So the political logic seems to be going like this: Sadr = Iran, therefore IAF links arms with Maliki. This isn't just another random move in the GreenZone musical-chairs routine. Rather, it represents a hoped-for accomplishment in the months-long US efforts to try and create in the GreenZone a government that would have a broader base than just Maliki and the Kurds, because the "Iraqi government" is going to have to sign a long-term security agreement with the US, and if the "Iraqi government" doesn't even have any Sunni Arab representation (not to mention the other missing parts), then the credibility and legitimacy of anything they sign with the US would be all the more questionable.

(This US effort to broaden the GreenZone government, under the rubric of "reconciliation", has been going on since the reported Dead Sea meetings and even before, but US secrecy and a general misunderstanding of what was going on, have made the process particularly hard to follow. Supposedly this has been a process of secret talks with the resistance, but probably it has been more of a series of probes to see who can be lured into the American-sponsored political process. In any event, the painting of Sadr as a clear and present Iranian danger in Iraq has perhaps done more than all of those talks put together, in getting Sunni groups to link arms with GreenZone administration).

http://arablinks.blogspot.com/2008/04/us-air-strikes-in-sadr-city-and.html