HASAN KANBOLAT h.kanbolat@todayszaman.com Columnists
The aftermath of the US withdrawal from Iraq



The seven-year US occupation of Iraq is officially over. But it physically still continues. This is why it might be more accurate to say that “the period of the US military presence in Iraq is coming to an end.” The invasion of Iraq kicked off a new era in both Iraq and the Middle East at large. The official end of the invasion may have a similar effect. However, it is still too early to think about post-US withdrawal in Iraq because the US military will continue to remain in the country.


The US is not changing its mind on Iraq. It will continue its political, economic and military presence in the country. The US will not remain indifferent to Iraqi politics through its largest embassy in the world, located in Baghdad, and its consulates in Arbil, Mosul, Kirkuk and al-Basra. US forces have not been visible on the streets of Iraq and in daily life for a long time. So we should ask ourselves whether the withdrawal is preparation for an upcoming mid-term election showcased for the American public.

The image trying to be portrayed is that “the Republicans began the occupation of Iraq, but the Democrats ended it.” Furthermore, the US withdrawal from Iraq can also be seen as a US effort to renew its global image, which is striving to do just this through the Obama administration because this administration is underscoring that the occupation is ending at a time when Iraq is in a good situation. The Obama administration, which does not wish to give the appearance that the US is a powerful country that invaded and then abandoned Iraq, leaving it to its own fate, but that it takes every opportunity to highlight Iraq’s political maturing, the ability of the nation to solve its own political crises through its own leaders as well as the improvement in the security of the nation.

Furthermore, the withdrawal is only military and pertains to technical components. Since the beginning of the occupation, the US’s main concern regarding Iraq has been political problems, not military. It does not appear that the daily violence taking place in Iraq is a problem for the US. As long as there does not emerge a state of war that will affect the wider area in Iraq, creating wide-scale chaos, an increase in resistance or clashes will not be seen as a problem by the US.

If a government is not established and the security agreement between the US and Iraq is not renewed following the upcoming Eid al-Fitr, then the US military presence in Iraq will come to an end in 2011. But this is a slim likelihood. The US is in Iraq and it will remain that way for a while longer. The decline in the US military presence in Iraq will surely increase its role in Afghanistan. This situation demonstrates that the axis of “the fight against terror,” which has become one of the US’s most important foreign policy axes following Sept. 11, is shifting from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, as of 2010, one must read that the most important matter for the US is Iran and the center is slowly shifting towards Iran. This is why we cannot expect the US to fully withdraw from Iraq, which has the longest border with Iran. I must note here that the US presence in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iran’s other neighbors, will increase. It is expected that the next conflict in the Middle East will be between the US and Iran. In the event of such a conflict, Iran is expected to use its greatest trump cards to respond to the US: its influence over Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq, conducting an operation against US soldiers stationed in Iraq. In this respect, the US’s decision to decrease the number of its soldiers in Iraq has become inevitable. This can also be seen as a precautionary move in the advent of conflict with Iran.

Prior to the invasion of Iraq, the US was not familiar with the Middle East and the Arab world. It attempted to familiarize itself with the region through diplomats and Israel’s looking glass. Along with the occupation of Iraq, US military forces in particular were able to gain experience in dealing with the Middle East and the Arab world. This situation makes us think that the US may make radical changes in favor of Arabs, without neglecting Israel in its Middle Eastern politics.

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