Russian arms cheating to backfire’

WASHINGTON: Defence Secretary Robert Gates told US lawmakers on Wednesday that he expects Russia to abide by a new nuclear arms treaty, but if they don’t it could wreck chances for future agreements.

In a newly declassified letter provided to The Associated Press, Gates wrote that he and the top US military leadership have concluded that Russia will not be able to achieve “militarily significant cheating” under the New START treaty.

Some Republicans have questioned the value of the treaty and expressed concern about whether Russian compliance can be adequately monitored. The Obama administration has made a strong pitch for Senate ratification, arguing that it serves US national security interests. Gates wrote that the Obama administration expects Russia to fully adhere to the treaty’s limits. The pact would shrink the limit on strategic warheads to 1,550 for each country, down about a third from the current ceiling of 2,200. A previous treaty on strategic arms limits expired last December.

“Any Russian cheating could affect the sustainability of the New START treaty, the viability of future arms control agreements, and the ability of the US and Russia to work together on other issues,” Gates wrote. Gates’s message was intended to allay concerns raised by Sen. John McCain at a July 20 congressional hearing in which the Republican responded incredulously to Pentagon statements that even large-scale Russian cheating on New START was of little military concern.

“Why have a treaty?” McCain asked, if cheating matters little. Gates sought to address that matter more fully in his letter, dated July 30 and addressed to Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Kerry’s committee is scheduled to meet next week to determine whether to advance the treaty to the Senate floor for an up-or-down vote on ratification. Observers say a floor vote is unlikely before the November elections.

Gates’s letter was provided Wednesday to other members of Kerry’s committee and to the Senate Armed Services Committee. The two-page letter originally was classified; by blacking out one paragraph the Pentagon declassified it. If Russia were to cheat on New START, the Pentagon could respond by putting its doomsday submarines and bombers on higher alert and arming them with extra nuclear warheads, Gates wrote. “Therefore, the survivable and flexible” US offensive nuclear arsenal will “help deter any future Russian leaders from cheating or breakout from the treaty, should they ever have such an inclination,” the Pentagon chief wrote.

Gates said his assessment is shared by Adm Mike Mullen, and the commander of US Strategic Command Gen Kevin P Chilton. ap

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